Thursday, March 20, 2014

Panelbase referendum poll shows women moving to Yes

It's only one poll, but a couple of things stand out.

1. Gender

I have been following women's voting intentions in the various polls which have shown that women hold the key to the outcome of the referendum.

The Panelbase survey identifies more women as stating that they will vote Yes - up to 38% from around the 27% mark, men are on 42%. These figures do not exclude the "don't knows".

The Yes vote amongst women breaks down by age group as follows:

16-34 45%
35-54 48%
55+   29%

2. Those who don't normally vote

Of those who chose not to vote at the last election 39% would vote Yes but 44% would vote No in the referendum. This shows that if they stay at home this time it is likely to benefit the Yes campaign.


Caveat

This is only one poll and Panelbase tended to be more favourable to a Yes result until recently. If this trend amongst women voters is confirmed by other polls then it probably marks a significant change in fortune for the Yes campaign.

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