Tuesday, November 26, 2013

£500 and Scotland's Future

According to this article from the BBC on 5th December 2011:

Almost two-thirds of Scots would vote for independence if they were guaranteed to be just £500 better off a year, a survey has claimed.
However, the Scottish social attitudes survey said only 21% would vote for it if they would be £500 worse off.

Today, 26th November 2013, at the launch of the white paper on independence:

Better childcare and education, a reformed, fairer tax system are being promised under an independent Scotland.
Laying out his blueprint for Scotland's future, the First Minister, Alex Salmond, also said that each Scot would be £600 better off.
 (source Sky News).

Coincidence? Probably not. The outcome of the referendum is probably all down to which way that £500 goes.


Update 24th January 2014

A further article about the £500 from the BBC with detailed polling information on this issue. This includes an update of the original 2011 research showing that being financially better or worse off under independence is now more likely to influence voting intentions.

In the 2011 report:

65% would support independence, and 24% would oppose it if £500 a year better off
21% would support independence, and 66% would oppose it if £500 a year worse off


In the 2013 report:

52% would support independence, and 30% would oppose it if £500 a year better off
15% would support independence, and 72% would oppose it if £500 a year worse off

Since Prof Curtice settled on using £500 for his research, other pollsters have followed suit.
ICM's September 2013 poll showed that if people could be convinced an independent Scotland would make you richer by the amount of £500, 56% would vote "yes" and 44% would vote "no".
The promise of a £500 deficit on the other hand produced a "yes" vote of 22% and a 78% "no" vote.

Read the full article here.




No comments:

Post a Comment